2022 Boys VT HS XC preseason musings......

2021 Division One:

1. St Johnsbury 72

2. BFA St Albans 72

3. Essex 82

Top 10 Returners:

1. Matthew Servin CVU 16:55

2. Luke Miklus Essex 17:34

Transfer Charlie Krebs StJ 17:48

3. Sky Valin SB 17:53

4.Andrew Thorton-Sherman StJ 17:54

5. Kelton Poirer Essex 18:04

6. Porter Hurtea BFA-St A 18:04

7. Vaughn Larkin SB 18:20

8. Kai Donnelly BHS 18:32

9. Brad Morigeau MMU 18:37

10. Nathan Lenzini St J 18:38

Team Outlook

Division One:

The team race in D1 could be interesting.No team instantly jumps out as a clear favorite but the closest may be St Johnsbury with the addition of Charlie Krebs transferring from Craftsbury Academy. Krebs gives St J a low stick partner with Andrew Thorton-Sherman and instantly fills some of their lost depth from graduation. Trying to challenge St J will most likely be Essex and South Burlington. Both teams return 2 top 10 returners and the question will be can they fill in their top 7 behind them to challenge the Hilltoppers. This will be a fun race to watch throughout the season to see if any of the other teams can develop their top 7 to have a strong five by the State Meet.

Individual Outlook

Division One:

Matt Servin looks the clear favorite at this point for the individual race. He has a 39 second gap over the next closest returner and he has been a solid performer his entire HS career. With all of these outlooks the thing that can jump up and bite the teams and individuals is the injury bug. If Matt stays healthy he should be the clear favorite. When Charlie Krebs is now added into this race it is a tight battle for the remaining top 5 and top 10 places. After Servin there are 6 runners separated by 30 seconds for the next 6 spots in the top 10. This tight grouping of high level runners could create some great racing and hopefully some impressive performances.

2021 Division Two:

1. U-32 17

2. Middlebury 95

3. Montpelier 109

Top 10 Returners:

1. Avery Smart Mont 17:34

2. Taggart Schrader U-32 17:55

3. Zed McNaughton Wood 18:12

4. Sargent Burns U-32 18:13

5. Wilder Brown U-32 18:23

6. Daniel Smith Wood 18:35

7. Baxter Harrington Midd 18:42

8. Noah Rivera Harwood 19:05

9. Baker Nelson Midd 19:11

10. Ezra Merrill-Tripplett Mont 19:15

Team Outlook

Division Two:

Could we have the battle of Montpelier for the boys D2 crown?? Montpelier and U-32 seem poised to battle with each other for the top spot at States. U-32 after an amazing season winning the New England Championship they graduated their top 3 runners. It is always a challenge to replace one or two runners but replacing three elite level runners is a huge task. Both teams will have a solid top 3 and then it will be the task of filling in the rest of their squads. Middlebury also will be looking to see if they can possibly spoil the party and join the Battle of Montpelier!

Individual Outlook

Division Two:

Avery Smart of Montpelier looks like the early season favorite in the individual race. Avery finished 4th last year behind the powerful U-32 trio and is poised to take over the D2 individual crown. On paper he has a 21 second gap over Taggart Schrader of U-32. After Taggart there is a similar situation to the D1 individual race. There are five runners separated by 30 seconds which could once again lead to some great racing. The tight groups can allow for some great individual performances and that will hopefully be the result for this pack of five.

2021 Division Three:

1. Craftsbury Academy 12

2. Stowe 65

3. Thetford Academy 78

Top 10 Returners:

1.Cormack Leahy Crafts 17:07

2. Charlie Krebs Crafts 17:48(St J?)

3. John Viens Richford 18:08

4. Matthew Califano Crafts 18:22

5. Charlie Kehler Crafts 18:33

6. Leo Circosta Crafts 18:41

7. Alexander Califano Crafts18:49

8. Alan Moody Crafts 18:53

9. Peter Searls Danville 19:02

10.Joel Roberts MidVC 19:04

11. Ben Mattern Thetford 19:13

Team Outlook

Division Three:

Even with the loss of Charlie Krebs to St J Craftsbury looks like the clear cut favorite for the D3 championship. Out of the top 10 returners Craftsbury has 6 of them!! As I said in the heading if I actually had one million dollars I would feel pretty safe betting on them for a repeat. When you consider that D3 scores 4 runners instead of 5 and they return the defending champion and they also return the runners that went 3-7 at last year's State Meet(after you remove Krebs). If any other D3 team pulls off the upset it would be one of the biggest upsets in recent VT HS history…and I don’t think I’m exaggerating! Craftsbury will also be driven to see how high up in the VT state team order they can climb and book a ticket to New Englands for the second year in a row. That is not a minor accomplishment considering their school size compared to their D1 and D2 competition.

Individual Outlook

Division Three:

Cormac Leahy has to be the clear favorite to repeat as the D3 individual champion considering he is 1 minute clear of the 2nd place returner from last season. Cormac is a seasoned racer and should be looking at improving on his 17:07 time from last year which only trails Matt Servin and his 16:55 in the D1 race. John Viens of Richford will be looking to close the gap and he will then have a group of Craftsbury Academy runners on his heels. The 2-5 runners for Craftsbury are separated by a tidy 30 seconds and will all be looking to move forward and improve on last year's times.